“ECONOMIC IMBALANCE”… IRAN IS AT RISK OF LOSING IRAQ SOON

“ECONOMIC IMBALANCE”… IRAN IS AT RISK OF LOSING IRAQ SOON

 The American Middle East Forum Institute has monitored the “economic imbalance” between Iraq and Iran, noting that the potential strategic repercussions of diminishing Iranian economic influence in Iraq in the coming period could leave Tehran vulnerable to losing Baghdad, as it is one of its last significant geopolitical and financial defenses in the region.  

The American Institute’s report, translated by Shafaq News Agency, stated that despite the severe shortages it faces domestically in terms of electricity and natural gas supplies and the difficulty in obtaining payments due to US sanctions, Iran continues to export energy resources to Iraq. This represents a contradiction in its long-term geopolitical calculations, which aim to “deeply entrench its influence in the Iraqi economy and political system.”

Noting that Iran’s exports to Iraq have increased more than 100-fold over the past two decades, demonstrating the depth of this intertwining, the report said, “Iran’s energy exports to Iraq have become a fundamental pillar of its influence in the country. Its modest non-oil exports to Iraq have increased from $145 million in 2005 to $11.9 billion in 2024, representing 20% ​​of its total non-oil exports. This figure does not include approximately $3 billion in electricity and gas exports to Iraq last year.”

According to the institute’s report, its data, based on Iranian customs figures, shows that Iran has exported goods and services to Iraq worth more than $100 billion over the past two decades. Furthermore, according to the report, Iran began exporting electricity to Iraq in 2005, generating approximately $10 billion in revenue over the past two decades.

He continued, “Since 2017, Iran has increased its gas exports, delivering more than 60 billion cubic meters over seven years, worth approximately $18 billion.”

Overall, he confirmed that Iran’s exports to Iraq amounted to $130 billion over 20 years, while Iranian imports from Iraq remained marginal. Prior to US sanctions on Iran in 2018, they amounted to a few tens of millions of dollars annually, and  recently reached approximately $500 million.

The report stated that “this economic imbalance has led to Iraq’s dependence on Iranian goods, energy, and services, which has allowed Iran to exert political influence in Baghdad, fund its pro-Iranian groups, and use Iraqi financial networks to facilitate currency smuggling and the secret sale of oil under Iraqi control.” 

After noting the numerous restrictions imposed by the US Treasury Department on several Iraqi banks, the report explained that these measures have made it more difficult for Iran to access hard currency through Iraq, a vital lifeline in light of Tehran’s broader isolation from the global financial  system .

The report found that Iran’s regional influence has declined since mid-2024 following Israeli strikes against its proxies and the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, making Iran’s role in Iraq more vulnerable. 

Therefore, the report considered that this situation created a new space for Iraq to strengthen its independence, while the “maximum pressure” campaign launched by the Donald Trump administration against Tehran encouraged Baghdad to begin diversifying its partnerships and reducing its dependence on the political and economic axis represented by Iran .

He explained that the International Monetary Fund expects the Iraqi economy to shrink by 1.5% in 2025, with the phasing out of US energy import waivers a contributing factor. He added that despite Turkey doubling its electricity exports to Iraq this year, Iraq’s gas deficit remains unresolved in the short term, posing a serious threat to the electricity grid and industry, and could lead to summer power outages and civil unrest.

The report continued: ” After Washington imposed a “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran in 2018, Iraq has been accumulating unpaid gas and electricity debts to Iran, reaching nearly $8 billion.”

He added, “Despite this, Tehran insists on continuing its exports, based on its strategic calculations rather than its economic logic,” considering that this influence may decline, as the International Monetary Fund expects Iran’s total exports to decline by $11 billion in 2025 compared to 2024, while the Fund also expects   a daily decline of 300,000 barrels in Iranian oil exports due to renewed US pressure, in addition to the decline in global oil prices.”

The report indicated that the US Treasury’s restrictions on Iraqi banks’ access to dollars will undermine Tehran’s ability to recover its funds. As a result, the Iranian rial will lose approximately 50% of its value in 2024, while the International Monetary Fund expects Iran’s GDP to decline by $60 billion in 2025, reaching $341 billion, its lowest level in 18 years .

He emphasized that Iran’s economic influence over Iraq remains significant, but fragile, adding that US financial restrictions, internal resentment in Iraq over Iranian interference, and Baghdad’s plans to diversify its gas sources all pose serious threats to Tehran’s influence.

He pointed out that if Iraq succeeds in reducing imports of Iranian goods, replacing Iranian gas with local or Turkmen supplies, and enhancing the compliance of its banking system with international standards, Iran “could lose one of its last significant geopolitical and financial defenses in the region.”

The report considered that, for the United States and its allies, strengthening Iraq’s energy independence and financial stability should be a strategic priority, adding that, for Iran, the cost of clinging to Iraq in the near future could outweigh the benefits.