IRAN IS ATTEMPTING TO IMPOSE A DILEMMA ON THE UNITED STATES

IRAN IS ATTEMPTING TO IMPOSE A DILEMMA ON THE UNITED STATES

Iran is attempting to impose a dilemma on the United States and the international community: either accept Iranian terms in nuclear negotiations or risk a long and challenging hunt for hidden Iranian nuclear material.

 This dilemma is likely designed to harden Iran’s nuclear program against destruction either by securing an agreement on Iranian terms (which would presumably allow Iran to continue enrichment) or protecting Iranian nuclear material by hiding the material, thus making a US or Israeli effort to destroy the material more difficult. 

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Mohsen Rezaei stated during an interview on June 20 that Iran has relocated its enriched material to a secure location to prevent it from being destroyed.

 This statement is presumably intended to suggest to a Western audience that destroying all of Iran’s nuclear material would require a long, challenging, and possibly futile hunt for hidden material and that, therefore, the West should negotiate with Iran. Iranian officials have expressed their interest in negotiating a nuclear deal with the United States, but have not moderated their negotiating position from before the conflict.

Iran remains committed to preserving its stated “right” to enrich uranium. These Iranian demands over enrichment have been a non-starter for the United States and Israel in the ongoing negotiations, suggesting Rezaei’s statement is designed to increase the pressure on the United States and Israel to relax their positions. The United States and Israel have rejected Iranian demands and maintained that Iran will not be permitted to enrich uranium on Iranian soil. Israel launched its air campaign on June 12 to “degrade, destroy, and remove [the] threat” of Iranian weaponization of its nuclear program, and a senior Israeli official said that enrichment remains a red line. US President Donald Trump has threatened to support an air campaign targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure if Iran fails to meet US demands for zero enrichment.

Key Takeaways:

• Iran is using negotiations and its efforts to hide nuclear material to impose a dilemma on the United States and force Washington to decide between accepting Iranian terms in nuclear negotiations or risking a long and challenging hunt for hidden Iranian nuclear material. This dilemma is designed to protect the nuclear program by securing an agreement with allowances for enrichment or protecting enriched material by hiding it. Iranian officials have not relaxed their negotiating position, which US and Israeli officials are not willing to accept.

• The Nimitz Carrier Strike Group will arrive in the CENTCOM AOR by June 22.

• Iranian-backed Iraqi militias are attempting to deter US participation in the war by threatening to attack US forces if the US attacks Iran. These threats are probably informed by ongoing discussions in the West about a protracted war with Iran.

• The International Atomic Energy Agency director warned of a dangerous degradation of nuclear security at Iranian nuclear sites due to Israeli strikes.

• Israel continued to conduct strikes targeting the Iranian internal security and social control apparatus, which could destabilize the regime. CTP-ISW has not observed any indications that the regime is near collapse or that its control is significantly weakened at this time.