IRAN’S SURPRISE: WITHDRAWING ITS FORCES FROM YEMEN AND ABANDONING THE HOUTHIS, 10 APRIL

 IRAN’S SURPRISE: WITHDRAWING ITS FORCES FROM YEMEN AND ABANDONING THE HOUTHIS

Iran has ordered the withdrawal of its military personnel from Yemen, abandoning its Houthi allies , as the United States escalates its campaign of airstrikes against the rebel group.

A senior Iranian official told the British newspaper The Telegraph that this move aims to avoid a direct confrontation with the United States if an Iranian soldier is killed.

Iran’s main concern

The official added that Iran is also scaling back its strategy of supporting a network of regional proxies in order to focus on direct threats from the United States. The source said that Tehran’s primary concern is US President Donald Trump and how to deal with him. 

He added, “All meetings are dominated by discussions about him, and we no longer discuss any of the regional groups we previously supported.” Since chat messages from senior Trump administration officials were leaked to the media last month, the United States has launched near-daily attacks on the Houthis.

Donald Trump described the strikes as “incredibly successful,” destroying important military targets and killing field commanders.

A Pentagon spokesman said more warplanes would be sent to the region, without providing specific details.

However, the US Air Force’s 124th Fighter Wing announced late last month that it would send “several” A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft and 300 aircrew to the Middle East.

A Russian military expert in Sanaa, the Yemeni capital, is also believed to be advising the Houthis on how to carry out their attacks while avoiding targeting Saudi Arabia.

The kingdom has bombed Houthi forces in Yemen since intervening in the civil war in 2015, and hosted high-level talks between the United States and Russia on a possible ceasefire in Ukraine.

The Houthis announced that they were attacking US warships in the Red Sea, including the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, which is leading efforts to strike the rebel group.

No ships have been hit so far, but the US Navy said the Houthi fire was the heaviest its sailors had encountered since World War II. The US aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson, currently stationed in Asia, is heading to the Middle East to support the Truman.

They won’t be able to stay.”

An Iranian regime source said: “The view here is that the Houthis will not be able to survive and are living out their last months or even days, so there is no point in keeping them within our network.” 

He added: “They were part of a chain that relied on Nasrallah [former Hezbollah Secretary-General] and Assad, and keeping only one part of that chain makes no sense in the future.” 

Trump has intensified pressure on Iran to come to the negotiating table to discuss limiting its nuclear program. Last week, he moved B-2 stealth bombers to the US-UK military base of Diego Garcia in the Chagos Islands.

The US position on Iran and the Middle East has changed radically since Trump took office.

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, said the escalation of US strikes on Yemen represents an attempt by the Trump administration to distinguish itself from its predecessor.

Former US President Joe Biden removed the Houthis from the list of terrorist organizations in 2021—a decision that Trump reversed last January.

“Trump is trying to prove that he is more effective in ending and resolving conflicts than the Biden administration,” Vakil said. She added that the strikes “are linked to his maximum pressure campaign, while simultaneously sending a message to Iran and the axis of resistance that his administration will take a more aggressive approach to destabilizing regional activities.” 

Mahmoud Shahra, a former Yemeni diplomat and current fellow at Chatham House, said the United States had pursued a “defensive strategy” against the Houthis during Biden’s term.

“Previous miscalculations regarding the Houthis in the US have led Trump to launch heavier strikes against them now, and [the US] has begun targeting key individuals and influencers within their ranks,” he told The Telegraph from Amman, the Jordanian capital. 

He explained that the Houthis’ weapons are more advanced, making them more powerful than other Iranian-backed non-state groups in the region.

“After the collapse of Hezbollah and the Assad regime, the Houthis are now on the front line, and they have carried out very intensive attacks. They are escalating and taking risks because, according to their own calculations, it prolongs their political life in Yemen,” Shahra added. 

“They are receiving missiles and drones from Iran and rebranding them with Houthi names because they don’t want to show their connection to Iran due to internal propaganda,” he said. Israel’s success against Hamas and Hezbollah—two key elements of Iran’s proxy network—has provided an opportunity to weaken the Islamic regime’s influence.

Analysts also believe that Iran’s failure to carry out effective missile strikes on Israel last year has undermined its ability to provide credible deterrence against external attacks and has weakened the morale of its allies.

The Israeli military destroyed most of Hamas’s infrastructure in Gaza and inflicted heavy losses on Hezbollah. Iran also failed to protect Bashar al-Assad, the ousted Syrian president and a key ally, from a surprise rebel offensive that led to his ouster in December. 

As Hezbollah’s influence declined, the Houthis attempted to take its place in leading the fight against Israel.

“They are not like Hezbollah”

Since the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks on Israel, the Houthis have improved their tactics and missile capabilities, building a strong public image.

The newspaper says, “They control Sana’a, print money, collect taxes, divert aid, smuggle drugs, sell weapons to terrorist groups in Africa, and disrupt international shipping routes in the Red Sea.” 

They also enjoy a geographical advantage; Yemen’s mountainous terrain, similar to Afghanistan, helps them hide missile and drone stores in caves and underground.

“They don’t have the same experience as Hezbollah, but they are more aggressive and dangerous at the same time – Abdul-Malik al-Houthi aspires to lead the axis of resistance,” Shahra said. 

“The streets of Yemen are filled with anger. The Houthis are not paying salaries and are imposing absolute taxes without representation. Therefore, their social base is not strong, and that is why they are relying on the Gaza war,” he added.