Iraq faces a "golden opportunity" following the regional truce. Will it capitalize on it?

  Iraq faces a "golden opportunity" following the regional truce. Will it capitalize on it? 

6/25/2025

Following the cessation of the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, Iraq has a "golden opportunity" to assume a pivotal role in the region. It can capitalize on the regional calm to reduce tensions, develop a new vision for its national security, and strengthen international and trade relations. This will have an initial impact on the Iraqi economy, according to observers.

However, translating this calm into real economic gains, according to observers, remains contingent on the Iraqi government's ability to accompany it with radical internal reform that ensures the rule of law and frees economic decision-making from the grip of militias. Otherwise, it will be little more than a truce that deprives Iraq of the opportunity to advance.

positive effects

In this context, the Prime Minister's financial advisor, Mazhar Mohammed Salih, said, "Regional calm in the Middle East, particularly among Iraq's neighbors, could have a direct and profound positive impact on the Iraqi economy."

Saleh explained to Shafaq News Agency, "The Gulf states, Turkey, and Iran may increase their investments in Iraq in the areas of infrastructure, energy, transportation, and agriculture, and provide Iraq with the opportunity for stability, especially to implement its geo-economic project, the 'Development Road' project."

He continued, "In addition to attracting Arab and foreign investments to operate in the industrial economic cities linked to the development project, we are working with minimal risk and the highest degree of stability. All of these factors are linked to the degree of stability in regional security and its repercussions on our country."

He asserts that "the more attractive and stable the investment environment becomes for foreign investors, the more costs will decrease as profit opportunities grow."

Saleh points out that "one of the best foreign investment opportunities, in addition to the development path, is competition for joint investment in natural resource sites (except for the oil and gas industry), as this is a promising vital field for investors."

"golden opportunity"

This is also the view expressed by Hussein Al-Sa'bari, the deputy chairman of the parliamentary investment committee, who said, "The regional situation has calmed down following the cessation of the war between Iran and Israel, and relations between Arab and regional states have become closer. Therefore, the Iraqi government must capitalize on this atmosphere to become a hub and a link between the parties, in order to ensure regional development."

Al-Sa'bari told Shafaq News Agency, "The current situation represents an opportunity for political development and international and commercial relations, which requires Iraq to assume its primary role in the region and capitalize on this golden opportunity."

Economic researcher Ahmed Eid agrees with Hussein Al-Saabari, stating that "the regional de-escalation between Iran and Israel presents an opportunity to reduce tensions in the region, which will initially have a positive impact on the Iraqi economy through reduced insurance and transportation costs, improved market sentiment, and relative stability in the dinar exchange rate. It may also contribute to reducing financial pressures on the general budget and boosting temporary investor confidence."

conditional economic gains

However, Eid noted in an interview with Shafaq News Agency that "translating this calm into real economic gains remains contingent on the Iraqi government's ability to accompany it with effective internal reform. External stability is important, but it cannot compensate for the rampant corruption in all Iraqi state institutions, which devours investment opportunities, paralyzes projects, and undermines the business environment."

He continued, "As for an increase in investments or a reduction in financial risks in Iraq as a result of this calm, yes, relatively speaking, but that depends on two factors: the duration of the stability and the extent to which investors are convinced that this calm is not temporary, and the second is the Iraqi government's ability to keep pace with this calm with internal reforms, such as improving the business environment and reducing security and militia interference."

He explains, "If this is achieved, regional calm could reduce Iraq's credit rating risks, thus encouraging some hesitant Gulf, Turkish, or Iranian investments, and enhancing opportunities for debt refinancing or obtaining international loans at lower interest rates."

strategic opportunities

Eid asserts that "Iraq possesses clear strategic opportunities, represented by expanding trade with neighboring countries (Turkey, Iran, and the Gulf), and attracting investments in renewable energy, particularly from European and Gulf companies that are monitoring the situation."

He added, "As well as reviving postponed projects such as the Basra-Turkey railway line or the Grand Faw Port, and utilizing Iraq as a transit corridor between the Gulf and Europe via the 'Development Road' project, and revitalizing the religious tourism sector and attracting visitors from Iran and the Gulf without security concerns."

Accordingly, Eid says, "External political stability is a necessary condition for attracting capital, but it is insufficient unless accompanied by internal reforms that guarantee the rule of law and free economic decision-making from the grip of armed groups. Any regional calm without radical internal reform will be nothing more than a temporary truce that deprives Iraq of the opportunity to rise."

A New Vision for National Security

The regional truce is not limited to economics, as military expert Alaa Al-Nashou explains, "The region is exposed to rapidly evolving events amid regional and international tensions, which requires Iraq to develop a new vision for its national security."

Al-Nashou explained to Shafaq News Agency, "Countries around the world rely on security capabilities, which include intelligence, accurate information, control, command, information security, facilities, and personnel. All of this enhances the country's national security. Therefore, Iraq needs a security vision related to a balanced foreign policy for the sake of common interests, and a rejection of interference and submission to any state."

The military expert asserts that "Iraq must build a future based on real security foundations that are linked to securing Iraqi society by strengthening cooperation with Arab, regional, and international national security."   LINK