🚨 MNT GOAT HIGHLIGHTS — Parallel Market & CBI Update 🚨

🚨 MNT GOAT HIGHLIGHTS — Parallel Market & CBI Update 🚨

💵 Parallel Market vs Official CBI Rate:

• Spikes in the parallel market 🏦 do not mean the CBI will change the official rate.

• Increasing the official rate (e.g., 1320 → 1400/1440) would lower the dinar’s value, not raise it ❌.

• CBI is committed to monetary stability — no knee-jerk reactions. ✅

📊 Why the Dollar is Rising Temporarily:

• Economist Manar Al-Obaidi: rise due to customs pre-calculation mechanism 📦

• This reform may temporarily affect prices but will increase customs revenues to 6–8 trillion dinars annually 💰

• Impact is temporary, CBI will not tamper with official rate

💡 Misguided Predictions:

• Nabil Al-Marsoumi predicts 180,000–200,000 dinars per $100 → would harm Iraq’s economy ⚠️

• Alaa Al-Fahad: non-oil revenues remain a challenge, but reforms are in motion 🌱

🏦 CBI & Financial Reforms:

• Investment Department = “silent backbone” of the economy 💪

• Foreign reserves > $100B 🌍

• CBI manages forex & public finances prudently

• Comprehensive reform package includes:

  • De-dollarizing Iraq 💵

  • Mandatory electronic salaries in Baghdad & Kurdistan 💳

  • Ending currency auctions, moving to correspondent banks

  • Customs & Tariffs reforms (Ascuda System)

  • ISX Stock Market reforms 📈

  • Insurance & banking reforms 🏦

  • Development projects: Port of Faw, road infrastructure 🚧

• These measures are long-term and carefully planned ⚡

🙏 Investor Takeaway:

• Spikes in the parallel market are expected and temporary

• Focus on facts and ongoing reforms, not outdated articles or media hype

• Digital salaries + currency reform = key steps toward future RV 🚀

🔗 Follow & Join the Discussion:
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🐦 Twitter: Dinares Gurus
▶️ YouTube: Dinar Revaluation

✨ Bottom line: CBI is in control, reforms are in place, and the “train” 🚂 toward monetary stability and digitalization is moving — carefully, but steadily!

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First Issue: The Parallel Market Rise

There is still the lingering issue of the parallel market vs the ‘official’ CBI rate. To have stability in the economy the CBI must control the parallel market. Recently there seems to be ongoing spikes in the parallel market and many believe this can be resolved with an increase in the ‘official” CBI rate. When any of these articles I present today talk about a rate increase they are actually talking about increasing the amount of dinar to buy 100 US dollars like increasing from 1320 to 1400 or 1440. So this is not a good thing as it actually decreases the rate of the dinar against the dollar. We want the inverse. Get it?

Why do many economists feel the issues with the dollar recently can be resolved by raising the ‘official’ CBI rate again to over 1320 to something like 1400 or 1440 to fix the dollar crisis. But will it? What other issues are involved that will be impacted if the CBI did change the rate?

In the article titled “AN ECONOMIST IDENTIFIES A REASON BEHIND THE SUDDEN RISE OF THE DOLLAR AGAINST THE IRAQI DINAR” on Tuesday, economist Manar Al-Obaidi attributed the rise in the exchange rate of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar in the parallel market to the imminent implementation of the customs pre-calculation mechanism. While praising this mechanism, he said that despite its temporary side effects on the local market, it will raise the country’s customs revenues to 6-8 trillion dinars annually. So, the key word here is temporary

The he added that “despite the widespread talk about an intention to change the official exchange rate, the Central Bank’s statement was clear and decisive: ‘There will be absolutely no change in the exchange rate,’” adding that “this announcement alone confirms that the Central Bank is committed to monetary stability and will not make any changes to the official rate.” Now I want to reiterate again this is not the exchange rate that we are looking at for our RV. Iraq is still on the sole peg to the dollar. Remember also this is actually a good thing in that the CBI is not going to change the exchange rate as they would change it to something like 1400 or 1440 that actually lowers the value of the dinar not make it greater.

So, I want everyone to understand today that the mess they are in about the customs and tariffs and the wide speculation in the increase in revenue it will generate that this comes with a price as the price of goods may go up since they cost more for the importer. Get it? But the Iraqi economy must adjust. Does this increase the purchasing power of the citizens? No, of course it will decrease but not enough to cause massive inflation. The CBI knows this and is not going to make ‘knee jerk’ reaction and raise the official rate to 1400 or 1440 just because some economists write their ‘opinion’.

We see this absolute silliness even more in one of today’s article (among many) titled “AN EXPERT QUESTIONS THE ANNOUNCED INVESTMENT FIGURES IN IRAQ, PREDICTING A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN THE EXCHANGE RATE” when on Saturday, 11/22 Nabil Al-Marsoumi, an economics professor at the University of Basra, questioned the amounts announced for investment in Iraq, while predicting a “significant” increase in the exchange rate. He also called for reforming the salary system and “moving away from media hype in assessing the Iraqi economic reality.” But remember his version of increasing the exchange rate is to go backwards not forwards. Get it? I do not feel his predictions will happen, he is purely speculating and economists should not do this. They should stick to FACTS and Al-Marsoumi is not well-informed.  

Al-Marsoumi, noted that “the exchange rate should be changed, and I expect it to be between 180,000 and 200,000 dinars per 100 dollars.” WOW this would absolutely kill the Iraq economy. Do you see how silly these solutions are? They do not take into consideration all aspects of the economy. Then in contrast, economist Alaa Al-Fahad described the weakness of non-oil revenues as a “major problem”. Yes, we already know that Iraq must diversify and under the leadership of al-Sudani this plan is already in motion. Why don’t they mention all the good reforms like almost doubling the oil revenues since Kurdistan reopened the major pipeline to the Basra ports along with the new wells being drilled. Seems their cup is always half empty rather than half full. But I have to add that Al-Marsoumi’s suggested solution tops them all for stupidity. This is not just my opinion but comes from my CBI contact when we reviewed many of these articles over the weekend in my call to Iraq.

Everyone should go read today’s article titled “LEARN ABOUT THE “SECRET OPERATIONS ROOM” THAT MONITORS THE PULSE OF THE IRAQI ECONOMY AND PROTECTS THE DINAR FROM FLUCTUATIONS” in full contrast to Al-Marsoumi’s suggested knee-jerk solution to the problem of the parallel market.

While the domestic debate continues regarding the exchange rate and the future of the dinar, the Central Bank of Iraq’s recent statement on the tasks of its Investment Department has revealed another dimension to the monetary landscape—one that is deeper, less visible, yet highly influential. This department, which manages foreign reserves and balances global market risks, is now described by economists as the “silent backbone” of the Iraqi economy, alongside oil, and the foundation upon which the most significant financial transformations underway in the country are taking place.

Economic expert Nasser al-Tamimi confirmed to Baghdad Today that the department has transformed in recent years from a traditional bureaucratic unit into a true center of gravity, preserving the stability of public finances and defining the Central Bank’s room for maneuver in the foreign exchange market. He told Baghdad Today that the prudent management of foreign assets—from government bonds to gold, deposits, and low-risk instruments—has enabled Iraq to weather the waves of global market turmoil and mitigated the impact on the dinar and the country’s financial balance.

The Central Bank’s technical statement, while employing specialized language regarding balances, transfers, and investment plans, nonetheless attracted the attention of international experts who analyzed its implicit messages. Bankers point out that the Central Bank’s explicit declaration that the department’s activities aim to stabilize the exchange rate does not necessarily mean an immediate appreciation of the dinar.

Here’s the part that I like most in this article and I quote – “However, it is a strong indication that preparations for a stable monetary reform have effectively begun. These experts believe the Central Bank is waiting for the “safest moment” to take any significant steps, given the extreme sensitivity of the Iraqi market. Any adjustment to the exchange rate system—whether an appreciation or a restructuring—requires a robust structure capable of absorbing shocks.”

It becomes obvious when economic experts like Nasser al-Tamimi come forward with FACTS to back up his statements they make much more sense and we can see the CBI has a plan and is working towards that plan. Part of the plan is to remove the zeros and then move to FOREX pending a review for inflation. Again even al-Tamimi is telling us the next measures must be carefully planned and they must pick the “safest moment” to take any significant steps. Remember these next moves are drastic but they are long awaited and the people have been educated and expect them.

Bottom line in looking at this recent surge in the parallel market is that “Iraq’s reserves now exceed $100 billion,” indicating that “there is significant international praise regarding the Central Bank’s management of the financial file.”

Al-Fahad said: “There is a great understanding between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank,” noting that “the Central Bank has refused more than once to tamper with the exchange rate, and the next government should stay away from the exchange rate and not manipulate it.”

Yes, this is the part that really scares me in that the result of this next election they put in some idiot into the office of prime minister who then proceeds to kill everything good that Al-Sudani and the CBI has accomplished much like Joe Biden vs Trump. Since Iraq is now on the verge of going forward with the final stages of the plan to reinstate this would not be a good thing for us investors to watch happen. So, we carefully watch this election cycle play out and pray that al-Sudani or someone like him is the next prime minister. Also that they can move on the next government quickly.

Are the spikes in the parallel market beyond the ‘official’ rate really a huge concern for the CBI?  

I have to say unequivocally NO! These spikes in the dollar are not a major concern for the CBI and Ali al-Alaq, the governor of the CBI has told us this many times and made it very clear. This lack of a major concern stems from the fact that Alaq knows the reasons for the spikes and these reasons are being addressed but take time to implement. These spikes were expected, as he also told us. Alaq also knows the ‘next stage’ and what is coming.

However, there are economists that do not feel the same way as Alaq. They conjure up articles and publish them. The information may be factual in some, just very outdated. They do not know or understand the true economy of a capitalistic state and still rely on social ideology concepts of the Saddam Heisen era as their main driver for solutions. They may also not be aware of the planned financial reforms already put in place or planned for the very near future.

Experts have differing views on the nature of the government’s measures and their results, with a general agreement on the need for a comprehensive reform package rather than relying on a single tool.

So, to us investors, as we read many of these articles we must misunderstand what is really happening behind the scenes. We must dig deeper to understand and go beyond some, not all of these articles. I call them foolish article, much like propaganda. Boy oh boy, I have to tell you there are a couple of these articles published recently and you would think that the author was living ten years ago and not in the current, as they do not even mention all the financial reforms but rather concentrate on how the economy was in the past. They even go so far as to insist on financial reforms that have already been put in place. Yes, it is ironic or should I say pathetic?

So, we know that in Iraq, the exchange rate of the US dollar in Iraq has been under renewed pressure recently, amid widespread economic debate about the reasons for the rise and its impact on the general budget and the local economy. Remember that the finance committee had to hold off on the 2025 projects due to lack of funding which was caused by a sudden drop in oil prices, below what the budget could endure. To me this was a VERY GOOD thing and financially responsible. Rather that criticizing these moves, (with giving their own sound solutions) the economists should be praising the government.

These so-called ‘experts’ have differing views on the nature of government measures and their results, with a general agreement on the need for a comprehensive package of reforms instead of relying on a single tool. Oh… is this not already what the CBI is doing? What the hell do they think a ‘comprehensive package’ means? It’s a package of many not a single tool. The CBI now has this comprehensive package of reforms and they have already rolled out many but it takes time to work, as they must work together to resolve these issues. Let’s take a look at some of the reforms:

• De-dollarizing Iraq;
• Mandatory electronic deposits for Baghdad salaries, no more cash
• Ending the currency auctions and going to correspondent banks for transfers;
• Limiting the amount of dollars for travel abroad;
• The Customs and Tariffs reforms (the Ascuda System);
• The ISX Stock Market reforms;
• The Insurance reforms;
• All these wonderful projects like the Development Road and Port of Faw projects;
• Redefining the valuable natural resources within Iraq and the plans to bring them to market;
• Instituting banking reforms for private banks, even closing banks that can’t meet solvency limits;
• Now we just learned about mandatory electronic deposits for all Kurdistan salaries, no more cash (we knew a year ago that they told us they needed Kurdistan to follow Baghdad on this move);
• Etc. etc,

You know, I could go on and on with all the reforms from just the past four years. And so what the hell are these economists talking about when they say needing more reforms? Iraq is at the point in that the ‘currency reform’ coupled with the digital currency could be the answer they have been waiting for. But as Alaq has said this takes careful planning and first they had to put other measures in place.

For instance, Kurdistan just announced that all public employees and salary recipients in the Kurdistan Region will be required to receive their salaries digitally through personal bank accounts under the MyAccount project, the Region’s finance ministry announced Sunday, adding that cash payments will no longer be available starting at the beginning of 2026. The finance ministry’s statement comes as the initiative enters its final stage. The deadline was established under a February agreement between Baghdad and Erbil requiring all public employees to open private bank accounts by the end of 2025 to ensure salary payments. Why is this important to us investors?  

You might want to go read the recent article titled “GOVERNMENT ADVISOR: DIGITALIZATION AND INCREASING NON-OIL REVENUES ARE FUNDAMENTAL TO FINANCIAL REFORM.”  I believe the article speaks for itself as to why it was so important to get Kurdistan on the electronic payments of salaries. Yes, no more cash being handed out. Will this finally break the parallel market?