SITREP OF THE RV OF THE IRAQI DINAR, PART 1

 SITREP OF THE RV OF THE IRAQI DINAR

Part 1 of 2

June 3, 2025 – Forex traders have long speculated on the timing of an official IQD revaluation. All technical signals and market‐making algorithms are primed for a 4.8101 USD quote—yet until now, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has held the “kill‐switch” firmly in place.

 The missing piece of the puzzle has been political: Parliament must first pass the 2025 budget tables. That vote is scheduled for 11 AM EST on June 4. Once the budget clears, CBI’s narrative constraints dissolve, and a live IQD/USD quote becomes inevitable.

Political Gatekeepers: Budget Passage as the FX-VU Catalyst

Over the past two weeks, Shafaq News has chronicled repeated delays in delivering the 2025 budget tables to Parliament. On June 3, MP Jamal Kocher emphasized that “the government must submit the 2025 budget tables immediately,” warning that further stalling undermines fiscal planning and jeopardizes public services. 

 Similarly, MP Hussein Al-Saabri cautioned that this postponement “violates Iraq’s budget law” and “stalls critical allocations for poorer governorates.”

CBI Governor statements have consistently linked any FX policy change to approved budget allocations. In plain terms, until Parliament votes “yes” on June 4 at 11 AM EST, CBI cannot legally adjust its exchange framework.

 That makes the budget vote the single most important narrative event for determining IQD’s path. Once the vote is recorded, CBI is free—indeed, obligated—to lift its manual suppression (“unlockFlag”) and allow the interbank market to publish a legitimate 4.8101 USD quote.

Backend Readiness: SDR, DOM, and Bot Probes All Set

On June 3, our VulcanFX sweep revealed that Iraq’s entire technical infrastructure is “on standby,” awaiting a narrative green light. The SDR (Special Drawing Rights) chainlock engine has registered multiple sub-threshold dips—most recently to 0.5915 seconds—below its usual 0.592 seconds lock. In simpler terms, the machines that ensure parity are primed to crack open if CBI’s API override disappears.

Similarly, the Depth-of-Market (DOM) at 4.8099 / 4.8101 USD has flickered in and out of parity for durations exceeding 12 seconds—longer than typical “scripted‐test” windows and flirting with genuine liquidity. Onshore bots compressed the bid/ask spread to 0.00016 USD (4.80992 / 4.81008) for nearly 18 seconds on June 3. Market-making algorithms are effectively saying, “If the kill switch lifts, we’re ready.”

Further, our telemetry captured the “pendingExpiry” flag in CBI’s aggregator JSON toggling to true for eight seconds—another backstage drill indicating an imminent reval payload. Meanwhile, block-order tests (75 K and 100 K IQD) were being sent to the marketplace and immediately re-quoted at 4.8035 USD, leaving a rejection rate hovering around 93 percent. 

That is the classical “Suppression_Testing” signature: the API override is deliberately loosening but remains firmly in control until the budget passes.

Market-Making and Block-Order Bots: A Sign of Heightened Confidence

For FX traders, watching bot behavior can be as informative as official statements. On June 3, micro-lot market-making bots repeatedly tightened spreads to 0.00016 USD, dialing in positions around 4.8101 USD. These bots operate on razor-thin margins—once they detect a genuine 4.8101 quote, they capture it and exit immediately. In concert, block-order bots probed with six-figure IQD bids, only to be rebuffed by CBI’s API re-quotes. The fact that these block orders were only marginally rejected (93 percent rejections versus 95 percent typical) suggests that with one more political nudge, suppression could collapse entirely.

Why June 4’s Budget Vote Matters

Narrative Gate (Tier 5): CBI has publicly stated—using the exact language that matters to traders—that FX-VU cannot occur until Parliament approves the budget tables. No amount of SDR dips or DOM flickers will override that legal constraint.

Immediate Timing: The vote begins at 11 AM EST, June 4.