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Iraq 2025: Political Shifts, Reconstruction, and the Promise of Change
Introduction: Baghdad as a “Surprise Boomtown”
Iraq is showing tangible signs of economic and infrastructural growth, with Baghdad emerging as what The Economist called a “surprise boomtown.”
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani used construction imagery for his Reconstruction and Development bloc during the November 11 elections.
Billboards and campaign materials featured Sudani wearing a hard hat, symbolizing Iraq’s rebuilding efforts.
Yet the key question remains: can Iraq’s political system keep pace with the rapid changes on the ground?
Featured Snippet:
“While Baghdad is booming, Iraq’s political system faces skepticism about its ability to effectively manage reconstruction, economic reforms, and militia influence.”
Election Outcomes: Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish Dynamics
Shia Political Bloc
Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development bloc won 46 seats, the most in the election.
Despite this, the Shia Coordination Framework insists the next prime minister serves as a ‘general manager’, implementing policies rather than creating them.
Sudani’s success contrasts sharply with his 2021 result, when his movement won only one seat.
Sunni Political Alignment
Sunni parties largely opposed Shia dominance and formed the National Political Council, aiming to unify against the Shia bloc.
Key early positions included preventing Mohamed Halbousi from being re-elected as parliament speaker.
Kurdish Internal Divisions
KDP and PUK disputes continue over control of KRG ministries.
These divisions could delay Baghdad’s government formation and impact national political cohesion.
Militias as Political and Economic Actors
Militia-affiliated parties gained significant ground in 2025 elections:
Sadiqoun (Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq) – 27 seats (up from 7)
Badr Organization – 18 seats
Militia candidates now occupy over 50 parliamentary seats, highlighting their political power.
Future prime ministers will need strategies to bring militias under state control.
Key Insight: US officials may insist on excluding militias designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, posing a challenge for coalition-building.
The US-Iraq Relationship and Foreign Policy
Iraqis across sects emphasized maintaining strong US relations while balancing historical ties with Iran.
Political maneuvering remains largely domestically driven, reflecting internal priorities rather than external pressure.
The next prime minister is expected to pursue continuity in Iraq’s foreign policy, including relations with the US.
Public Sentiment vs. Political Elites
Many Iraqis express disillusionment with elections, viewing them as largely symbolic.
The 2019 Tishreen protests and 2021 parliamentary results show limited impact of independent activists.
Critics argue the 2025 elections were a “billionaires’ election”, driven by high political spending, rather than popular enthusiasm.
Featured Snippet:
“Despite high voter turnout, many Iraqis remain skeptical that elections influence real government decisions, reflecting a gap between elites and the public.”
Signs of Change and Reconstruction
Route Irish, once infamous for attacks on US convoys, is now safe for civilian travel.
Al-Mutanabbi Street in Baghdad has been rebuilt after the 2007 bombing, restoring a hub for booksellers and cafes.
Freedom of movement and revitalized marketplaces in Dohuk and Erbil reflect tangible progress in everyday life.
Challenges Ahead for the Next Government
Militia control and influence
Economic reforms and infrastructure projects
Water and environmental crises
Bridging the gap between political elites and the general population
Key Insight: Iraq’s next government faces a moment of opportunity to enact meaningful reforms while fostering citizen trust.
Q&A: Understanding Iraq’s 2025 Political Context
Q: Who won the 2025 Iraqi elections?
A: Prime Minister Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development bloc won the most seats, but the Shia Coordination Framework remains influential.
Q: How influential are militias in politics?
A: Militia-affiliated parties now hold over 50 parliamentary seats, making them key stakeholders.
Q: Are Kurds united in national politics?
A: No, internal KDP-PUK divisions could delay Baghdad’s government formation.
Q: How does the public feel about elections?
A: Many Iraqis are disillusioned, feeling elections have limited impact on government decisions.
Conclusion: Iraq at a Crossroads
Iraq in 2025 presents a juxtaposition of hope and challenge:
Urban reconstruction and economic growth indicate progress.
Political fragmentation, militia influence, and public disillusionment underscore ongoing risks.
The next government has a historic opportunity to unify political elites, manage militias, and bridge the gap with citizens.
“After two decades of conflict, Iraq shows promise, but success depends on narrowing the divide between elites and the people.”
Official Updates and Community Links
🔹 Atlantic Council Iraq Initiative:
👉 https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/region/middle-east-north-africa/iraq-initiative/
🔹 Iraqi Government Official News:
👉 https://gds.gov.iq/en
🔹 Middle East Political Analysis Blog:
👉 https://middleeastpolicy.org/iraq-politics/
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English (US) ·