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The Dollar Approaches The Official Rate: A Real Reform Or A Temporary Trick?
July 22, 2025 Last updated: July 22, 2025 Al-Mustaqilla/- In a move that suggests a "shift" in the government's policy toward the dollar crisis, Mazhar Mohammed Saleh, the financial advisor to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, revealed five factors that he said would lead to narrowing the gap between the official and parallel rates, paving the way for what he described as a "matching" phase between the two rates.
But the most important question is:
Is what is happening real reform?
Or is it merely "economic makeup" that masks a fragile reality?
The official exchange rate, set by the Central Bank at 132,000 dinars per $100, is now approaching the parallel market rate of 139,000 dinars.
This decline is viewed by some as a positive sign, while others view it as a "politicized" and temporary move to calm the street ahead of upcoming political and economic events.
Five factors or five pressure cards?
The government's primary consideration is preventing dollarization, particularly in the real estate sector.
While this may sound like a good move in theory,
it raises questions about its implementation in a market teeming with informal transactions.
The second factor relates to transfers via global correspondent banks after the central bank window closed.
However, observers question:
Are these transfers truly available to everyone,
or are they restricted to specific names and companies?
The third factor is the entry of small traders into the official transfer window,
a step whose effectiveness on the ground is questioned by many due to the red tape and bureaucracy.
The fourth factor revolves around the expanding use of electronic cards, a move that is hampered by technical infrastructure and a deeply ingrained cash culture.
The fifth factor relates to what the government calls "price defense" through cooperatives, a policy that could return Iraq to the era of "ration cards,"amid doubts about its sustainability.
Is the difference really less than 4%?
Advisor Saleh's statements that the difference between the two rates has become "merely a transaction cost" open the door to a broad economic debate:
Can we speak of "convergence" while the parallel market persists?
Have the dollar mafias truly been eliminated?
Or have their positions merely shifted?
In conclusion: appeasement or radical treatment?
Achieving a unified exchange rate is a legitimate popular and economic demand.
However, without a comprehensive reform of the financial system, increased transparency in transfers, and ensuring fairness in cash distribution, any decline in the parallel market may prove to be nothing more than a "warrior's rest" before another explosion. https://mustaqila.com/الدولار-يقترب-من-الرسمي-إصلاح-حقيقي-أم/
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